Track record

A forward call is only worth reading if the misses are published beside the hits. Each resolved watch is graded on three axes: whether it pointed the right way, whether it landed inside its stated window, and whether it had the weight right. A call can be directionally correct and still late; both are recorded.

What each call taught

Crooked Can Minneola Is Open: The anchor opened and validated the thesis. The original April 2026 call slipped a quarter; the corrected "Summer 2026" read landed — July 15 is mid-summer. Own the first miss; the calibration held.

Clermont C-2 food-truck permitted-use text amendment: Predicted the Council-directed text amendment would materialize as a permitted/administrative path out of the CUP system; it did, as Ord 2026-014 on the June 2 LPA agenda, modeled on peer-city code. Directionally exact, on the forecast horizon, at the forecast weight.

Citrus Ridge Commercial PUD substantive vote: Predicted Rose/McCoy would hold as a confirmed bloc on substance; the bloc dissolved at the substantive vote. April's tabling was procedural caution about an evolving package, not a structural objection. The conservation-vs-property-rights axis we forecast as an emerging fracture line was overstated for this case.

Lake Bright-Brighurst at Leesburg City Commission: Predicted bloc would hold at Council; the bloc fractured 4-1 in favor. The post-mitigation-rejection precedent we forecast did not lock; the reverse precedent now operates — $2.3M of guaranteed infrastructure capital, paired with county-level approval of that capital plan, is sufficient to flip a P&Z-denied PUD at Council. Significance was confirmed: the outcome reshapes Leesburg's denial-floor calculus.

Lake County BCC appellate disposition — Serenoa Self-Storage: Predicted BCC would affirm the PZB denial; instead the applicant withdrew before the BCC vote, 8+ days ahead of the hearing date. Withdrawal is a *stronger* outcome than denial because it is binary capitulation rather than a contested vote — the corridor's defensive posture is so established that competent counsel reads the field and stops bringing applications that are not going to clear the standards.

Recovery Residences regulatory infrastructure in a third city: Predicted a third corpus city would author the same SB 954 surface within six months on the same template; Maitland did so on March 5 (a fourth city, cross-county), well inside the window. Directionally exact, resolved fast, and the pattern generalized past the three-city threshold rather than reverting to a two-city anomaly.