Public scorecard
The forecast record, audited.
Every watch item resolves. Every resolution carries a directional read assessment, a horizon call, and a significance check. They tally here. Aligned, mixed, misread — every directional call counts. Calibration is the moat; the discipline is reading the field accurately enough that the observatory's reads can be trusted next cycle.
8 resolved · 19 pending
Directional accuracy57%4 aligned · 0 mixed · 3 misread
Horizon accuracy43%3 within · 1 early · 3 late
Significance accuracy57%4 confirmed · 2 overstated · 1 understated
Last 6 resolutions
- Jun 4, 2026SB 180 self-expiration — all four cities enter adoption windowsobsoletemisread
- Jun 2, 2026Clermont C-2 food-truck permitted-use text amendmentadoptedaligned
- May 9, 2026Crooked Can Brewing opens at Hills Town Center, Minneolacontinuedaligned
- May 4, 2026Citrus Ridge Commercial PUD substantive voteapprovedmisread
- Apr 13, 2026Lake Bright-Brighurst at Leesburg City Commissionapprovedmisread
- Apr 7, 2026Lake County BCC appellate disposition — Serenoa Self-Storagewithdrawnaligned
Per-place calibration
How the score is computed
- Directional accuracy = (aligned + 0.5 × mixed) / total resolved. Mixed reads receive half-credit because they capture partial-truth dynamics. Misreads and unforeseen outcomes earn zero.
- Horizon accuracy = within / total resolved. Whether the predicted event happened inside the watch's stated horizon window. Early and late are both not-within.
- Significance accuracy = confirmed / total resolved. Whether the predicted cardinal weight matched the actual structural impact of the outcome.
- Misreads are reported. The point is calibration, not marketing. Every resolved watch shows its assessment publicly, including those where the observatory was wrong.